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After spending the week chatting with global investors, economists, and world leaders at the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) annual spring meetings in D.C., former Bridgewater chief investment officer Rebecca Patterson is concerned the market has gotten too upbeat after its early April Trump tariff rout.
“The biggest [takeaway] to me was a read on the non-US investor, the global investor right now. And I’m talking about large institutional investors, people who run large pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and they’re rethinking the United States,” Patterson told me on Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid podcast (video above; listen in below).
Patterson is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. She’s also an independent director at Vanguard, a global asset manager with more than $10 trillion in assets under management. She was previously the chief investment strategist at Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund.
“I think there is a new risk premium on US assets as seen by foreign investors that did not exist before the ‘Liberation Day,’ maybe before the administration started … The Treasury Department estimates we have about $30 trillion of US equity and bond holdings by foreign investors,” Patterson said.
If, for example, a Canadian pension fund decides to cut allocation to US stocks and bonds by 2% each — 4% total — it’s a small adjustment for the fund. But if all foreign investors do so, “$1.2 trillion would leave US assets,” Patterson explained.
Her cautiousness is counter to what investors have witnessed since mid-April, as the Trump administration has shown a willingness to talk tariff deals.
Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump’s tariffs
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) has seen a four-day rally despite a series of mixed earnings reports from the likes of household-name companies such as PepsiCo (PEP). Downright bad ones from companies like Tesla (TSLA) have been decently received, with that stock up 25% in the past five trading sessions.
The benchmark index is up 12% from its April 8 trough (but still down 10% from its mid-February peak).
Japan’s Topix Index closed Monday at 2,650.61, just above the close on April 2 before Trump unveiled his tariff scheme.
The safe-haven gold trade that has dominated 2025 has cooled a touch.
The forward price-to-earnings multiple on the S&P 500 now stands at 19.9 times and is far removed from valuations seen during recessionary periods, according to data from BCA Research chief strategist Peter Berezin.
