
Artificial intelligence (AI) is still a hot topic with market-moving powers, but the rising star of the moment is quantum computing. Experts in this field have seen their stock prices multiply in the last six months. As of March 13, shares of niche veteran IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) doubled in half a year, while smaller player Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) posted a 1,093% gain.
But I wouldn’t buy either one of these skyrocketing market darlings today. They might be the superstars in the long run, but many things have to go right to reach that status. So far, they are deeply unprofitable business operations with minimal revenue streams, running on funds from stock sales or loans. And what happens if the next quantum computing research project turns up a lump of coal instead of a gold mine?
If and when that happens, I don’t want to own Rigetti or IonQ stock. Mind you, I won’t bet against them, either. Short-selling has unlimited downside risk if the target stock overcomes every hurdle and continues to deliver strong stock price gains.
But there are better ways to approach the quantum computing market with far lower risks. You may have noticed that the sector’s massive market moves in recent months were based on news from Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). Any one of these tech titans would strike me as a better play on the quantum computing idea.
The sector surge started when Google Quantum AI (a subsidiary of Alphabet) developed a new quantum computing chip called Willow. I have covered the details of this technical achievement in depth, and it was indeed a big step forward. Pure-play quantum experts like IonQ and Rigetti started their price jumps with this event. This new computing method suddenly looked ready to take the world by storm.
But the Google team’s original announcement made it clear that there’s a lot of work left to do. Willow’s sophisticated error correction merely “paves the way” to commercial-grade quantum computers. The headline-inspiring performance was a test of high difficulty but low commercial relevance.
The Willow chip fit the description of the second milestone in Google Quantum AI’s six-step roadmap. It took five years to move from the first milestone to the second, and quantum computers won’t offer game-changing performance until researchers crack the sixth milestone. I’m talking about millions of qubit processing units, up from about 100 in the Willow solution.