January Jobs Report Preview: Speculators Bet On Strong Payroll Surge, Yet Economists Predict A Different Picture

Wall Street is on edge ahead of Friday’s January jobs report, as a stark divide emerges between economist projections and speculative market bets.

While economists expect only a moderate payroll growth, far below December’s robust reading, betting odds are signaling confidence in a much stronger labor market, setting the stage for potential volatility if the data surprises.

In a note shared Thursday, Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker said he expects nonfarm payrolls to rise by 190,000 in January, slightly above the consensus estimate of 170,000 but still well below what speculative markets are pricing in.

Alternative employment indicators suggest solid job creation, Walker said, but factors such as the Los Angeles wildfires and colder-than-usual weather could subtract about 40,000 jobs from the total.

A Potentially Massive Revision

Beyond the headline numbers, Friday’s job market report will also include an annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey and updated population controls in the household survey—factors that could significantly alter the perception of job market strength.

Walker highlighted that the preliminary estimate indicated an 818,000 downward revision to payroll growth from April 2023 to March 2024.

“We see the revision as partly misleading, as it will likely inaccurately exclude 300-500k immigrants who were not in state unemployment insurance records,” Walker stated.

Key Numbers To Watch

• Nonfarm Payrolls (January): 170,000 expected, down from 256,000 in December
• Unemployment Rate: 4.1%, unchanged from December
• Average Hourly Earnings: 0.3% month-over-month (as in December), 3.8% year-over-year, down from 3.9%.

What Are Betting Markets Expecting?

The latest data from prediction market CFCT-Kalshi shows a striking contrast to Wall Street’s more tempered outlook.

Traders are pricing in a 69% chance that payrolls will exceed 200,000, with nearly a 45% probability of surpassing 250,000.

For comparison, December’s official nonfarm payrolls came in at 256,000, well above expectations.

Market Reaction Could Be Swift

With so much uncertainty surrounding the jobs report, investors are preparing for potential volatility.

A strong print — especially one above 200,000 — could reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts, pushing Treasury yields higher and weighing on tech stocks, which have benefited from lower-rate expectations.

Conversely, a weak report could reignite bets that the central bank will cut rates sooner than expected, boosting risk assets.

Traders are pricing in a 66% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by June 2025, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, market-based odds suggest an 82% chance of two rate cuts before year-end.

The S&P 500 index — as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY — was 0.3% higher on Thursday, trading less than a percentage point below its record high.

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