The S&P 500 just cleared a major hurdle in its post-tariff rally. The time it took may or may not be a bearish sign.

A stock-market relief rally lifted the S&P 500 SPX to a Monday close above its 200-day moving average — a level widely seen as a proxy for its long-term trend — for the first time in more than 30 trading sessions.

History suggests that fears of a prolonged dip below that closely watched level, which is often seen as a sign of big trouble for the market, may be misplaced.

The S&P on Monday surged 3.3% to finish at 5,844.19. The index climbed above its 200-day moving average of 5,749.44 after hovering below that key technical threshold for its longest stretch since 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

A common refrain among stock-market technicians is that the longer an index holds below the widely watched 200-day moving average, the more dangerous the market conditions would be for investors, and it implies waning market strength over the long term.

But history shows that, since 1929, when the S&P drops from at least a three-year high and then stays below the 200-day moving average for at least 30 trading sessions, it is often followed by strong returns for the benchmark index in the months and year ahead, said Jason Goepfert, senior research analyst at SentimenTrader.

The table above shows the large-cap S&P 500’s performance following each time it cycled from at least a three-year high to holding at least 30 sessions below its 200-day moving average.

Since 1929, the S&P 500 has typically gained a median 4.1% in the three months after spending over 30 days below its 200-day moving average following a drop from a three-year high. The index has also registered a median double-digit returns over the following 12 months, according to data compiled by SentimenTrader.

To be sure, the S&P 500 did experience “tough times” with double-digit losses suffered over the following year, most notably in 2000 and 2008, Goepfert said in a Monday client note.

“But most of the time, of course, that did not happen. Even though its average return and risk/reward weren’t impressive over any time frame, they were mostly positive from two months and beyond,” he said. “Most cycles from new highs to 30 days below average soon recovered.”