Most automaker executives who participated in Kerrigan Advisors’ 2025 OEM Survey said they think Chinese carmakers eventually will enter the U.S. market. And 70 percent of respondents also said they are concerned about the financial implications of Chinese automakers’ rising global market share.
Kerrigan Advisors’ annual automaker survey, in its third year, collected responses from more than 100 U.S. automaker executives from December through March, mostly before the Trump administration announced auto tariffs. The survey also asked participants about electric vehicle sales, dealer profitability and the franchise system.
Erin Kerrigan, managing director of Kerrigan Advisors, a dealership sell-side firm in Incline Village, Nev., said the questions about Chinese automakers were added to this year’s survey given their growing dominance globally and in their home market.
“These are considered real threats by the OEMs,” Kerrigan said.
Another new question on this year’s survey found a third of automaker executives expect to have fewer dealers in their network in the next five years; just 14 percent expect to have more. And in another new question, 28 percent said they will exercise a right of first refusal — a tool that allows an automaker to refuse a potential store buyer and replace them with a buyer of their choice — more than a quarter of the time in the buy-sell deals they receive.
New questions added to Kerrigan Advisors’ annual survey of automaker executives reveal most respondents see the rise of Chinese carmakers as a threat.
Question: Are you concerned about the financial impact of the rising global market share of Chinese automakers on your OEM?
Question: Do you think Chinese OEMs will eventually enter the U.S. market?
Source: 2025 Kerrigan OEM Survey
“It’s certainly consistent with what we have observed in the buy-sell market and in our conversations with OEMs where certain OEMs are vocally saying ‘We want fewer, larger dealers,’” Kerrigan said. “As we see it, the OEMs are retreating from the idea that they will be the direct-to-consumer seller.”
The number of auto executives who believe an agency model — used by some brands now in the U.K. where the retailer is the customer’s contact point — will be implemented in the U.S. in the next five years dropped to 8 percent from 12 percent in last year’s survey and 22 percent in the 2023 survey.
Compared with the last two surveys, a greater number of respondents this year, 74 percent, said the dealer and automaker together will own the primary customer relationship and most customer data in five years. In 2024, that number was 67 percent and it was 66 percent in 2023.
