Zachary Swartz, Partner, Real Estate Capital Markets and Mergers & Acquisitions, Vinson & Elkins LLP
By Zachary Swartz
Recently, economic and market volatility seem to have become the norm, rather than the exception. While current events could cause even the most seasoned lawyer’s head to spin, in-house legal departments have an important role to play in helping their boards and management teams navigate their companies through these uncertain times.
The Only Certainty is Uncertainty
Following President Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs on April 2, 2025, global stock markets experienced a significant downturn and increased volatility. Markets declined at a rate that hadn’t been seen since the 2020 market decline, which occurred during the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. A week later, President Trump announced a 90-day decrease to 10% on all tariffs except those imposed on China, which caused markets to surge.
Although the volatility in the market continued following the announcement of the 90-day pause, as of this writing, markets had generally recovered to levels close to where they were on “Liberation Day,” and the VIX, a popular measure of stock market volatility, had decreased to a more “normal” level. However, longer-term uncertainty still exists with respect to the economy, particularly around inflation and interest rates. The economy appears to have remained resilient with low unemployment and strong consumer spending, but there are fears that a tariff-heavy trade policy could cause inflation to spike, which would suggest that the Fed could keep rates higher for longer; but then again, if the economy tips into a recession, the Fed could be pressured to bring rates down.
This general economic uncertainty comes at a time where significant geopolitical uncertainty continues to exist as well. President Trump continues to attempt to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, but has also suggested that such a deal is “maybe…not possible.” Conflicts in the Middle East continue to rage on, and evidence of fractures within the Trump Administration over the Israeli-Hamas conflict and U.S. relations with Iran have created additional geopolitical uncertainty.
And while trade and geopolitical developments continue to take up the lion’s share of the front page news of many media outlets, a significant amount of uncertainty exists with respect to domestic regulatory policy as well. While the Trump Administration has already taken steps to begin the implementation of its deregulatory agenda, a number of the President’s key political appointees have either only recently been confirmed, are awaiting confirmation, or in some cases, haven’t even been nominated yet. This likely means that significant additional regulatory changes can be expected in the coming months.
