Traders and macro experts are taking note of the Japanese Finance Minister, Katsunobu Katō‘s subtle reference to his country’s substantial U.S. Treasury holdings as a possible leverage in the ongoing tariff negotiations with Washington.
What Happened: On Friday, Eliant Capital, a popular macro and event-driven trader, posted on X, drawing attention to the latest remarks from Katō, amid trade negotiations with the U.S.
Speaking in a television interview on Friday, Katō said that the purpose of Japan’s U.S. Treasury holdings, which is currently the largest in the world, at over $1.13 trillion, is to ensure that there is sufficient liquidity for defending the Yen via interventions, when necessary, according to a report by Reuters.
While there were no outright threats, Kato made a slight reference to the use of treasuries as leverage, saying that “we need to put all cards on the table in negotiations. It could be among such cards,” when asked if Japan would be reassuring Washington that it would not be selling its Treasuries.
“Whether we actually use that card, however, is a different question,” Kato added, a notable shift from remarks he made just weeks earlier, when he explicitly ruled out using U.S. Treasury holdings in trade negotiations.
In the post, Eliant calls this a dangerous statement, which shows that “the U.S. doesn’t hold the cards here,” before illustrating that if Japan does press its advantage, the negotiations could tilt in its favor.
Why It Matters: U.S. Treasuries have been under pressure throughout the past month, with yields continuing to rise amid a falling equity market, which Deutsche Bank AG DB analysts referred to as a full-spectrum collapse.
While President Donald Trump has denied that bond market turbulence influenced his decision to press pause on the tariffs, analysts and experts maintain that so-called “bond vigilantes,” or investors who sell bonds in response to unsound fiscal or monetary policy, likely played a key role in pressuring the administration to back down.
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