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It has won four NASA contracts to put lunar landers on the Moon, the first two being partial successes.
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It has also won a $4.8 billion contract to build a communications network between Earth and the Moon.
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The next earnings report should say how it plans to improve its landers and begin building its network.
Call it “strike two” for Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR).
I was probably as excited as any other space investor when, early last year, Intuitive Machines landed a U.S. spacecraft on the Moon for the first time in more than 50 years. Like many other space investors, I shrugged off the fact that the company’s Nova-C class lunar lander didn’t exactly “stick the landing,” instead toppling over and ending up on its side. It was their first attempt, after all, and they did at least get the spacecraft down in one piece, even if not entirely vertical.
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That was then, though, and this is now. One year after its first attempt, Intuitive landed a second Nova-C on the Moon in March. And just like the first lander, this one too ended up on its side, suggesting there may be a flaw in the lunar lander’s design, in its software — or both. Investors are understandably disappointed in the company’s technical performance, and Intuitive stock is down nearly 40% over the last couple of months as a result.
And yet, I’m still convinced Intuitive Machines stock is a “buy.” Here’s why.
Why is that? Listen, I won’t sugarcoat the company’s troubles. I won’t call them “failures,” but I certainly can’t call these flubbed landings “successes.” They are serious setbacks for Intuitive Machines. The company’s at real risk of squandering its lead in the race to establish a track record for successful delivery of payloads to the Moon for NASA, especially given that its rival Firefly Aerospace nailed its Blue Ghost Mission 1 landing on the Moon just days before Intuitive not-quite-failed.
As a result, NASA now has two lunar landing companies to choose from in awarding future contracts, only one of which has a 100% successful track record on Moon landings. And it isn’t Intuitive Machines.
That said, NASA has already gone ahead and awarded Intuitive Machines two more landing contracts, which give the company two more chances to work the bugs out of its lander, its software (or both). So long as it doesn’t squander the opportunity, there’s every reason to believe Intuitive Machines can still win this space race. And if it succeeds, there’s every reason to believe the company will win even more landing contracts from NASA, keeping this Moon-landing business up and running.