Twilio (TWLO) is gearing up to report its first-quarter earnings for 2025 on May 1. However, analysts at Jefferies have adopted a cautious tone ahead of the release. Yesterday, the firm’s four-star-rated analyst Samad Samana trimmed his price target on TWLO stock from $145 to $108 and expects only “modest” revenue growth in the upcoming Q1 earnings report.
While Twilio progress on cost-cutting and operational efficiency, Jefferies remains conservative on the company’s revenue growth. On the other hand, Samana noted that Twilio’s stock is trading well below its peak levels. He believes this sets up a positive short-term outlook, suggesting potential upside ahead.
Overall, the company is facing macroeconomic headwinds, with a slowdown spreading across various sectors, including technology, social media, and cryptocurrency, and extending into retail and e-commerce.
Wall Street analysts expect Twilio to report earnings of $0.96 per share for Q1, up from $0.80 per share in the same quarter last year. Meanwhile, Q1 sales are forecasted at $1.14 billion, with estimates ranging between $1.13 billion and $1.16 billion. This compares to sales of $1.19 billion reported in the previous quarter.
Ahead of Twilio’s upcoming earnings, it’s essential to analyze the company’s past performance. Key metrics from Main Street Data offer valuable insights into the trends shaping Twilio’s growth and financial health. Let’s take a closer look at these figures.
According to Main Street Data, Twilio’s active customer growth has remained relatively flat over the past few quarters. In Q4 2024, the company reported 325,000 active customers, reflecting a modest 6.5% year-over-year increase. This slow growth indicates that Twilio is facing challenges in expanding its customer base, which may impact its overall revenue growth and market positioning.
Meanwhile, the company’s dollar-based net expansion rate has remained flat over the last few quarters. This indicates that while Twilio isn’t losing revenue from its existing customers, it’s also not experiencing any growth in revenue from upselling or upgrading those customers. This flat growth indicates that the company is struggling to fully capitalize on its existing customer base.
