Only time will tell who was the worst U.S. president for S&P 500 stocks. But President Donald Trump is giving Richard Nixon a run for his money.
The S&P 500 tanked 7.9% during Trumps’ first 100 days in office, says Sam Stovall, strategist at CFRA. That’s the second-worst showing since 1945, trailing only the 9.9% drop in 1972 in Nixon’s second term. It’s not exactly the kind of record analysts like to see broken.
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Trump’s first 100 days’ performance is miles behind the average 2.1% gain in the first 100 days of all U.S. presidents.
And what this poor early showing portends isn’t great. “A below-average first 100 days saw a full-year decline of 5.5%,” Stovall said. “Finally, an above-average climb in the next 100 days resulted in a full-year gain of 22% … while a below-average return saw an average dip of 3.7%.”
Trump’s Terrible Start
Rather than just being a bargaining chip, tariffs have become the centerpiece of Trump’s economic policy. That has rattled investors who thought Trump would be pro-growth.
The numbers show investors’ disappointment. The S&P 500 shot up 3.7% from Election Day to Inauguration Day. That’s roughly double the S&P 500’s average gain in that time period going back to 1944, Stovall found. But those gains and then some disappeared in the first 100 days.
There have been few places to hide. Stocks of all sizes and styles fell in Trump’s first 100 days. And 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors dropped. Only consumer staples, a favorite sector in downturns, rose.
Worst Hit S&P 500 Stocks
And some S&P 500 stocks are suffering even more.
Maker of Teva sandals and UGG boots Deckers Outdoor (DECK) has seen its shares collapse 48% in Trump’s first 100 days. That makes it the worst S&P 500 stock in that period. The stock’s RS Rating has collapsed to 11 out of 99, despite an EPS Rating of 98. Its stock is way below the 200-day moving average now.
Another big disappointment is Teradyne (TER), whose test systems are used by auto companies, as well as communications and computer makers. Shares plunged 44% in Trump’s first 100 days. Presumably, its business will suffer due to the tariffs. Its RS Rating also plunged to 11, although its EPS Rank is just 67. Analysts think profit will only rise 2% in 2025.
The only question now? Will the next 1,361 days of Trump’s term be this painful?
Trump’s First 100 Days Look Bad
% chg. of S&P 500 in U.S. Presidential terms from 1944
| Election year | President | First 100 days |
|---|---|---|
| 1944 | FDR/Truman | 10.4% |
| 1948 | Truman | -4.9% |
| 1952 | Eisenhower | -5.8% |
| 1956 | Eisenhower | 2.5% |
| 1960 | Kennedy | 8.9% |
| 1964 | Johnson | 2.9% |
| 1968 | Nixon | 2% |
| 1972 | Nixon | -9.9% |
| 1976 | Carter | -4.4% |
| 1980 | Reagan | 0.9% |
| 1984 | Reagan | 5.0% |
| 1988 | Bush | 8.0% |
| 1992 | Clinton | 1.6% |
| 1996 | Clinton | 3.2% |
| 2000 | Bush | -6.9% |
| 2004 | Bush | -1.6% |
| 2008 | Obama | 8.4% |
| 2012 | Obama | 7.5% |
| 2016 | Trump | 5.0% |
| 2020 | Biden | 8.5% |
| 2024 | Trump | -7.9% |
| All | 2.1% |
Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence, IBD
Follow Matt Krantz on X (Twitter) @mattkrantz
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