Will Tariffs Leave A Mark? Business Activity Data Lands Wednesday In First Read Since Trump's Move

The first big economic pulse check since President Donald Trump‘s tariff announcement arrives Wednesday, and Wall Street is watching closely.

S&P Global will release its flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys for April, covering the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and France.

These surveys will provide the first broad snapshot of business sentiment since the April 2 tariff announcement.

While the 90-day pause may have delayed the most severe or recession-like signals, investors will be watching closely for early signs of strain — or unexpected resilience — already emerging in the data.

US April Flash PMIs: What Economists Expect

Consensus forecasts suggest a pullback in both U.S. manufacturing and services. According to TradingEconomics, economists expect:

• Manufacturing PMI to decline from 50.2 in March to 49.4 in April
• U.S. Services PMI to fall from 54.4 to 52.8

Any reading below 50 signals contraction. These forecasts suggest that America’s factory activity could return to negative territory, while services — still growing — are likely to slow down.

“The flash releases of S&P Global’s PMIs will offer the first broad-reaching view of business conditions in April. They are expected to show manufacturing in contraction and growth of service-providing businesses slowing,” Comerica’s chief economist Bill Adams said.

The bank projects an even weaker outlook than consensus, seeing the manufacturing PMI at 49 and services down to 51.5.

Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius said the firm is focused on the new export orders component of the survey. March data showed sharp declines in countries like Canada and Mexico, which were affected by early tariff announcements.

“Historically, each 1-point drop in new export orders has predicted a 0.75 percentage point hit to year-over-year export growth,” Hatzius said, adding that while some export strength may reflect frontloading, a reversal is likely once tariffs are implemented.

Market Implications: Another Volatility Trigger?

Investors are poised to interpret the PMI data as a leading indicator of tariff-related disruptions.

A weaker-than-expected release would likely confirm fears that global supply chains are already feeling the pressure, potentially weighing further on risk assets.

In contrast, stronger-than-expected readings could ease fears of a global downturn, suggesting that businesses are adapting better than feared, at least for now.

Since Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement — which he branded as “Liberation Day” — the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY has dropped 7%, reflecting heightened uncertainty and flight from equities. Meanwhile, gold, tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust GLD, has risen 8%, signaling investors’ rush toward safety amid the unfolding trade tensions.

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