The U.S. tech sector just walked into a geopolitical buzzsaw, and NVIDIA Corp NVDA may be the first big casualty. As trade tensions ratchet up and tariff policy gets more unpredictable, AI leaders such as Nvidia are getting boxed out of China just as competitors like Huawei prepare to strike.
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives isn’t mincing words: “The U.S. tech industry in particular is front and center in this Category 5 storm.”
The spark? A chaotic rollout of new trade barriers, including a ban on Nvidia’s H20 chip in China — a move that Ives says is “cutting U.S. tech at the knees and helping steamroll China tech ahead.”
In contrast, Huawei is already gearing up to ship its rival 910C AI chip — comparable to Nvidia’s H100 — by early May. Chinese firms, blocked from Nvidia’s offerings, are “picking up the phone and calling Huawei,” according to Ives.
In short, the U.S. is losing leverage and China is gaining momentum.
The stakes are massive.
“For the first time in 30 years, the U.S. is ahead of China when it comes to AI,” Ives notes.
But that edge could erode fast. With supply chains in disarray and CEOs unsure of the rules, even bellwethers such as Apple and Tesla may struggle to stick to product road maps.
Ives is urging policymakers to act: “This game of high-stakes poker from the White House needs to result in trade deals ASAP.” Without progress, the market could “go into bunker mode,” by slashing spending, hiring and investment.
In Ives’ words, “the longer this drags on, U.S. tech takes a step back… while China tech sees tailwinds.”
Until then, welcome to the “economic Twilight Zone,” says Ives.
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