Speculators Ramp Up Bets On Who Will Succeed Fed Chair Powell As Trump's Pressure Campaign Intensifies

Betting markets are heating up over who might replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as President Donald Trump escalates his campaign to reshape the central bank’s leadership.

On Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction platform, traders are ramping up bets on who Trump will nominate next to lead the world’s most powerful central bank.

Powell’s term is set to end in May 2026, yet speculators currently foresee nearly a 1-in-4 chance that Trump will remove him before year’s end, despite legal and institutional hurdles.

Trump Publicly Attacks Powell Over Interest-Rate Policy

The surge in speculation follows a week of political fireworks, where Trump not only called for “preemptive” interest rate cuts but also accused Powell of past political favoritism.

On Monday, the president blasted Powell on Truth Social. “There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOWMr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW.”

Powell has always been ‘Too Late,’ except when it came to the Election period when he lowered in order to help Sleepy Joe Biden, later Kamala, get elected,” Trump said.

The feud has triggered concerns about central bank independence, with Trump’s economic adviser Kevin Hassett confirming the administration is “considering” removing Powell early — a move legal scholars say would test constitutional norms.

Before the political firestorm, Powell appeared at the Economic Club of New York, where he issued a stark warning on Trump’s tariff agenda.

He said that new tariffs are poised to create upward pressure on inflation while simultaneously slowing growth, potentially undermining the Fed’s dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment.

This could force the central bank to prioritize whichever variable — inflation or the labor market — is further away from target, Powell indicated. The Chairman also reiterated that there is no rush to cut rates amid the current economic uncertainty.

Who Are The Contenders?

Kevin Warsh: A former Fed governor between 2006 and 2011, Warsh was a vocal critic of quantitative easing and has expressed concerns over loose monetary policy. While historically hawkish, he is politically well-connected and previously advised the Trump administration, making him a potential pick to reshape the Fed’s direction—even if that includes adapting to Trump’s push for lower rates.

Kevin Hassett: An economist who served as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Trump (2017–2019), Hassett is closely aligned with Trump’s economic agenda and is currently Director of the National Economic Council. His influence has grown in recent months.

Judy Shelton: An outspoken advocate for a return to the gold standard, Shelton was nominated by Trump to the Fed board in 2020 but failed to secure Senate confirmation. Her views on monetary policy and Fed independence are controversial but align with Trump’s skepticism of current Fed leadership.

Larry Kudlow: Former director of the National Economic Council under Trump and now a Fox Business host, Kudlow is a long-time supply-side economist and advocate for pro-growth, low-tax, low-rate policies. Although not a central banker, his media profile and loyalty to Trump make him a viable political pick.

Arthur Laffer: The father of the “Laffer Curve” and a supply-side icon, Laffer was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom by Trump in 2019. While he has never served in a central banking role, his ideological alignment with Trump’s views makes him a symbolic candidate.

Jerome Powell: Powell’s odds have dropped drastically amid Trump’s repeated verbal attacks. While the Fed chair has said he intends to serve his full term, markets view renomination as increasingly unlikely.

Betting On Powell’s Successor

Here’s where the money is going on Kalshi’s “Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?” market.

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