Noted investment adviser Gary Black drew attention Sunday to the rising odds of a recession in 2025 due to President Donald Trump’s tariff measures.
What Happened: Black, managing partner at The Future Fund, highlighted the increasing likelihood of the U.S. slipping into recession this year on the decentralized betting platform, Polymarket.
“Trump’s tariffs have pushed the odds of recession to 57% as consumers and businesses cut back, up from 20% at the beginning of 2025, according to Polymarket,” he wrote on X.
Indeed, odds on the Polygon POL/USD-based platform sharply rose this month, coinciding with the sweeping tariff measures announced on the “Liberation Day” and the escalating trade war with China.
Over $3 million has been wagered on the outcome as of this writing. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession in the U.S. before January 1, 2026, or if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP is negative for two consecutive quarters.
While it’s not officially permitted, U.S. users can technically use VPNs to bypass the geo-restriction on Polymarket.
Why It Matters: While the stock market saw some relief last week after Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs, CNBC commentator and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, Josh Brown, warned that this could be a “bear market bounce” and that the recession was still on course.
On the other hand, the International Monetary Fund maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook. While acknowledging a rise in economic uncertainty due to trade tensions, the IMF has stated that its revised projections reflect a slowdown, but not a full-blown recession.
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