Novo Nordisk May Lag Behind Eli Lilly In Cardiometabolic Race, Analyst Downgrades Stock

BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan David Seigerman downgraded Novo Nordisk NVO from Outperform to Market Perform, lowering the price forecast from $105 to $64.

Per Seigerman, Novo Nordisk’s stock may underperform compared to peers in the cardiometabolic space, particularly Eli Lilly and Company LLY.

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The analyst highlights that Lilly’s drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, will likely keep gaining U.S. market share from Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy.

Seigerman noted that although Novo Nordisk initially benefited from being first to market with semaglutide, that early lead is quickly diminishing.

Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide is rapidly capturing market share, and the analyst projects this momentum to continue.

The analyst pointed out that recent clinical comparisons have shown tirzepatide outperforming semaglutide, and this advantage is already reflected in U.S. script data.

According to Seigerman, tirzepatide’s continued growth to further slow the momentum of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic.

In the near term, the analyst is doubtful that Novo Nordisk’s upcoming drug CagriSema will be able to effectively compete, citing disappointing results from the REDEFINE trial.

With additional drugs like orforglipron and retatrutide in Lilly’s pipeline, the competitive pressure on Novo Nordisk is likely to intensify going forward.

Additionally, upcoming data on orforglipron could introduce more competition and weigh on Novo Nordisk’s stock.

Overall, the analyst does not expect the company’s 2025 developments to be strong enough to reverse this trend or significantly boost its market position.

Price Action: Novo Nordisk shares are trading lower by 7.1% to $58.41 at last check Thursday.

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