EXCLUSIVE: Tariff Uncertainty Turns Traders Cautious — But Oil, Silver Might Be The Escape Hatch, Says Market Analyst

Futures traders are navigating a minefield as new tariffs send shockwaves across equities, commodities and Treasuries.

Jim Cagnina, senior market analyst at NinjaTrader, isn’t surprised by the ripple effect. “Markets are inherently averse to uncertainty — especially at the scale we’re seeing with the new tariff regime,” he said in an exclusive interview with Benzinga.

With inflation, raw material volatility and global supply chain risks rising, the market’s mood has clearly shifted to “risk-off.”

The S&P 500 futures are already down nearly 15% from their February peak, and Treasuries are feeling the pressure too. “U.S. Treasuries are also selling off big time with the 10 year yield tapping 4.5% in overnight trading,” Cagnina noted, calling out the “48-basis-point move” seen last week, as one of the sharpest he’s seen in years.

As volatility hits the bond market, ETFs like the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF IEF or ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury TBT may help traders express views on yields and rate moves.

Read Also: Treasury Yields Hit 3-Year Record Surge Amid Trump Tariff Fears: What Investors Should Know

While some investors retreat, others are leaning in. Cagnina sees an upside in chaos — particularly in energy and metals.

“This environment is creating real opportunities in the energy space — particularly in Crude Oil, Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel and Gasoline futures,” he said. Traders looking to ride the tariff-driven momentum in energy could consider the United States Oil Fund USO or Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund XLE, which offer targeted access to oil and broad energy equities, respectively.

Precious metals are also coming alive. “The bullish case for silver is strong and gaining momentum,” he added, pointing to persistent supply deficits. Gold, meanwhile, is “finally acting like the risk-off safe haven many investors have been waiting for.”

With Cagnina bullish on silver and gold, ETFs like the iShares Silver Trust SLV and SPDR Gold Shares GLD offer a liquid way to gain exposure without diving into futures directly.

For those brave enough to dip into equities, the magic number is 5000 for S&P 500 futures. “The 5000 level has become a key level – sticky, yet still highly reactive,” Cagnina explained.

If it holds and daily price ranges tighten, that could suggest a bottom is in. Even stronger confirmation would come from a close above 5330, a key Fibonacci level that could flip sentiment from bearish to bullish, noted Cagnina.

For those eyeing a rebound in equities, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY remains the benchmark bet, while Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF RPV could appeal to bargain hunters anticipating a turnaround.

To time the turn, Cagnina recommends keeping an eye on the 8-period Exponential Moving Average near 5300. A close above it would be his green light to shift bullish.

Until then? “Every day is an adventure,” he said.

Read Next:

Photo: Shutterstock