Trump Averts Financial Crisis With Tariff Pause, But Not A Recession: Josh Brown

CNBC’s Josh Brown says Wednesday’s gains were a blip on the radar of a serious bear market, despite President Donald Trump‘s 90-day pause on his reciprocal tariff plan.

What Happened: By midday Thursday, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 had dropped significantly, wiping out nearly half of Wednesday’s gains.

Indeed, Wednesday ranked among the best in market history. But according to Brown, other historic days came during periods of immense financial uncertainty, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Depression.

“Yesterday is peculiar in that it didn’t take place in a statistical bear market down 20% or worse,” Brown said on Thursday. “But from my perspective, close enough. The median stock was in its own bear market, most sectors that matter were in their own bear market.”

Why It Matters: Brown, the CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, says a recession is still possible.

“The end result today is, oh, wait a minute, maybe we put the financial crisis on hold, but we still get to have a recession,” he said. “That’s how I feel. I don’t want to get too negative and I’m not out shorting the market, but I just want to give people a really accurate picture that this feels more to me like a classic bear market than a correction, a dip or a ‘health pullback.’”

Forbes reported that sharp increases in 10-year bond yields moved Trump to reverse his far-reaching tariff policy temporarily. Brown said Trump’s efforts are a poor sign.

“Stabilizing the treasury market is historically not bullish,” Brown said. “I would also point out that a 45 basis point swing in the 10-year [treasury] is maniacal. I want to say, ‘this is a pullback, just pick your favorite names and load up.’ I think you should be a buyer if you have a long time horizon, but you should not expect that the buys you make today will be rewarded a week from now.”

The University of Maryland alum noted that such a large swing in the 10-year treasury has only occurred nine times in history.

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