Goldman Sachs Raises Risk Of Recession to 45%: Jefferies Calls Tariffs a 'Free Hall Pass' For Tech Giants To Reset Their Goals

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS is the latest investment bank to predict a recession for the U.S. economy over the next 12 months, with the odds being raised to 45%, from its previous prediction of 35%. Amidst all this chaos and uncertainty, however, there is a silver lining for the tech giants and their executives.

What Happened: On Sunday night, Goldman Sachs published a note raising its recession probability forecast from 35% to 45%, citing the sharp tightening of financial conditions and a spike in policy uncertainty. Just a month ago, it raised the probability from 20% to 35%, stating that economic fundamentals weren’t as robust as in the prior years.

See More: Tariffs Threaten To End Era Of Cheap Clothing — Apparel Industry Faces Major Price Shock Under Trump Policy

The bank now follows JPMorgan Cash & Co. JPM, which made a similar prediction last week, hiking the odds of a global recession to 60%.

While none of this sounds good, Jefferies Financial Group Inc JEF analysts believe that this, along with the Donald Trump administration’s tariffs, can be a ‘Free Hall Pass’ for tech companies to revamp their financial guidance.

According to the firm’s lead analyst Brent Thill, companies can use this crisis to aim for ‘lower estimates that are more achievable and can help boost investor sentiments and stock performance,’ as reported by Business Insider.

The firm’s analysts then cut their Price Targets for Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, Meta Platforms Inc. META, and Microsoft Corp. MSFT, among 29 leading tech stocks.

Why It Matters: The analysts noted that besides the obvious first and second order impacts of the tariffs, both Meta and Amazon generate significant revenue from Chinese advertisers trying to reach global audiences, which is now under pressure.

However, analysts have asked the tech giants to use this as an opportunity to reset their guidance to move conservative figures, something that better reflects new market realities.

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