
Out of the 11 stock market sectors, energy is the best-performing year to date — up 7.9% at the time of this writing compared to a 5.1% decline in the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC).
The move may come as a surprise, given that the U.S. benchmark oil price, West Texas Intermediate, is $69.36 per barrel compared to an average of $76.63 in 2024. But leading oil and gas stocks offer investors a great deal of safety amid economic uncertainty and trade tensions.
Here’s why ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) stand out as three balanced dividend stocks to buy now.
ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips all have clear paths toward delivering strong free cash flow (FCF) even at current oil prices. These companies have done an impressive job of boosting efficiency and lowering costs across their production portfolios, which allows them to generate a ton of FCF, even at mediocre oil prices.
ExxonMobil has a five-year corporate plan with the goal of breaking even at $30 per barrel Brent (the international benchmark) by 2030 and delivering $110 billion in surplus cash through 2030, even if Brent averages just $55 per barrel. At $73.63 per barrel at the time of this writing, Brent is typically a few dollars higher per barrel than WTI.
At $70 Brent, Chevron expects to bring in $5 billion on FCF in 2025 and $6 billion in 2026, which includes fixed loan payments and quarterly dividends. On its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call, Chevron said it expects to add $10 billion in annual FCF over the next two years. Around 75% of Chevron’s oil investments can break even below $50 per barrel Brent.
ConocoPhillips has elevated capital expenditures as it is investing in long-term projects. However, the payoff should be worth it, as these projects are expected to produce $6 billion in incremental FCF, assuming WTI oil prices stay around $70. Throw in the acquisition of Marathon Oil, which was completed in November, and FCF could be massive in the coming years.
All three companies generate so much FCF that they can afford to steadily grow their dividends and repurchase a substantial amount of stock.
In 2024, ExxonMobil returned a staggering $36 billion to shareholders — $16.7 billion in dividends and $19.3 billion in buybacks. It plans to continue its annual $20 billion share repurchase program through 2026. ExxonMobil has raised its dividend for 42 consecutive years.
Between 2022 and 2024, Chevron returned over $75 billion to shareholders, including a record $27 billion last year, consisting of $11.8 billion in dividends and $15.2 billion in buybacks. Chevron has raised its dividend for 38 consecutive years.