Summary
This week features the next read on inflation and the continuation of trade talks, this as the dates approach for tariffs on certain products and industries. The timing and details of those tariffs have brought volatility to Wall Street. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average popped 1.2%, the S&P 500 rose 0.5%, and the Nasdaq eked out a 0.2% gain. Year to date, the DJIA has declined 1%, the S&P 500 is down 4%, and the Nasdaq has lost 8%. On the economic calendar, data on Consumer Confidence will be released on Tuesday. On Friday, fresh inflation data (by way of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, or PCE) will hit the tape. Headline PCE was 2.5% in January and Core PCE was 2.6%. Argus expects a slight slowing in the February headline reading, to 2.4%, and forecasts no change in the core reading. Argus’ Chief Economist Chris Graja’s Economic Call of the Week is Consumer Confidence. Chris expects to see additional signs that consumers are concerned about the economy. He forecasts that the headline index will fall to 94 for March from 98.3 in February and offers the following thoughts. ‘We always express caution about the usefulness of sentiment indicators when forecasting spending and U.S output. But this is an environment where it is better to have a plan than be ‘uncertain,’ and where venerable recession indicators including the Sahm Rule, an inverted yield curve (Treasury Bills yielding more than 10-year Treasury bonds), and even two negative quarters of GDP have not predicted a recession. We continue to evaluate a broad range of leading indicators, like sentiment, as well as coincident and even lagging indicators. We focus on the ‘Three Ds’ that are often cited by the National Bureau of Economic Research: the Diffusion, or range of signals across categories and industries; the Depth of any weakness; and the persistence or Duration of signals. In February, the Conference Board noted that its Expectations Index dropped 9.3 points to 72.9, which was below the threshold of 80 that ‘usually signals a recession ahead.’ Another recession rule of thumb — for Expectations to drop more than 50 points from the recent peak — is more stringent and would trigger below 43.7. A level of 100 corresponds to a base year of 1985. Again, our analysis isn’t about one indicator but the Diffusion, Depth, and Duration of signals.’ Last week, Chris’ call was the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’ Financial Stress Index. The data came in as Chris predicted, rising slightly but remaining below zero — signaling a continuation of below-average stress in the financial markets. On the earnings calendar: KB Homes reports on Monday; McCormick & Co. on Tuesday; Dollar Tree on Wednesday; Lululemon Athletica on Thursday. The
