On Monday, RXO recently released its Q1 2025 Truckload Market Forecast, with its Curve Index showing a continuation of rate inflation first observed in Q4 2024. The Curve, formerly the Coyote Curve, is a proprietary index measuring year-over-year changes in truckload linehaul spot rates (excluding fuel). It has climbed steadily higher for seven consecutive quarters. After purchasing Coyote Logistics in September 2024, RXO acquired the data and combined it into a larger dataset.
“The Curve has been a leading index for years — now, as a combined organization, it’s going to become even more robust,” said Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO. “As the third-largest freight brokerage in North America, we have an immense set of data spanning industries, geographies and business sizes.”
The forecast highlighted how rising spot rates and capacity exiting the market are driving the upswing, though the authors caution that the extreme conditions experienced in the last inflationary market in 2020 and 2021 are not anticipated. While shippers may not feel dramatic changes yet, RXO warns that conditions are shifting in ways that could lead to tightening later this year.
The Q4 2024 Curve Index showed spot rates up 11.6% year over year, a jump from the 5.8% increase seen in Q3. This rise was driven by continued carrier exits, impacts from hurricanes Helene and Milton, and typical holiday shipping seasonality.
Contract rates, while still showing a slight year-over-year decline of 1.5% in Q4, moderated from the 3.4% y/y drop seen in Q3. This aligns with typical market behavior, as contract rates tend to lag spot rates by two to three quarters.
“Over the holidays, we saw market rate and coverage KPIs reach levels we haven’t hit since Christmas 2022. While we have seen some of those gains moderate through the first quarter to date, the baseline has reset higher,” said Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO. “Though the rest of 2025 may not look like the peak in the COVID-era truckload market, we’re seeing continued signs that we’re past the bottom of the cycle.”
The broader U.S. economy remains relatively healthy, with low unemployment and several key indicators moving higher. However, uncertainties loom, particularly around inflation, interest rates and trade policies.
Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy costs, increased by 3.3% year over year in the latest update, exceeding both market expectations and the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate. This persistent inflation, coupled with potential impacts from recent changes in U.S. trade policy, has driven consumer confidence to a seven-month low.
