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Home Depot (NYSE: HD) is a retailer that needs no introduction. The company has over 2,300 stores across North America — making it a well-known one-stop-shop for do-it-yourself tasks, professional contractors, and a services segment that can help customers with their home improvement projects.
Home Depot’s expansion has corresponded with a strong stock performance. Its market capitalization has jumped from around $50 billion 15 years ago to over $380 billion today. As an industry leader and a component of both the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), Home Depot is about as blue chip as it gets.
Here’s why Home Depot remains a foundational dividend stock that passive income investors can build their portfolio around for 2025 and beyond.
Home Depot’s updated guidance from November (when it reported third-quarter fiscal 2024 results) calls for a 2.5% comparable stores decline for the full fiscal year and diluted earnings per share (EPS) to fall by 1% when adjusted for the company’s 53-week fiscal year. So overall, weak results. Especially when factoring in relatively easy comps.
In fiscal 2023, Home Depot’s comparable sales fell 3.5% while diluted EPS fell 9.5%. Suffice to say, Home Depot is undoubtedly in a multiyear downturn, which is evident when looking at its stagnating sales growth and falling operating margins in recent years.
Despite the poor results, Home Depot stock hasn’t seen significant declines. It’s up around 11% over the last three years and 57% over the last five years. That said, it is underperforming the S&P 500.
Given the negative comparable sales growth, the stock has been resilient, likely because the market cares more about where a company is going than where it is today. Home Depot’s long-term investment thesis hasn’t changed. It’s just that the current macroeconomic backdrop is a major headwind for Home Depot.
High interest rates make it more expensive to finance home improvement projects. Elevated mortgage interest rates dissuade home purchases, which can lead to lower home sales. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which measures residential real estate prices in the U.S., is at a 10-year high. Mortgage interest rates are near a 10-year high. And U.S. credit card debt is over $1.2 trillion — a near 50% increase from pre-pandemic levels.
Meanwhile, U.S. existing home sales are near a 10-year low and down around 20% from pre-pandemic levels — suggesting fewer homes are being sold. And the U.S. fixed housing affordability index is around 100, which means that only a median household income with a 20% down payment can afford a home. Essentially, buyers looking to make a lower down payment or those with a below-median income are somewhat priced out of the market.