30-year mortgage rates inched slightly lower this week, dropping a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it two basis points to 6.87%.
Going much lower than that might be tough if financial markets keep swinging, housing experts say.
This week alone, 10-year Treasury yields — which usually closely mirror mortgage rates — rose sharply on Wednesday, the final day of Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey, after Consumer Price Index data showed inflation heated up in January and is running well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, dampening hopes of lower interest rates.
But a day later, yields fell by roughly the same amount when President Donald Trump pledged reciprocal tariffs on US imports but said they wouldn’t go into effect immediately. The market gyrations have become more common in reaction to Trump’s fast-evolving tariff proposals.
Volatile periods can end up being a wash for mortgage rates and have helped keep them stuck in a narrow range of just below 6.9% to just above 7% for all of 2025 so far.
“Given a range of potential outcomes and a lack of clarity, markets are really what’s driving mortgage rates to fluctuate weekly,” said Zillow senior economist Kara Ng.
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Though mortgage rates aren’t controlled by the Fed, they also typically move based on expectations about the direction of benchmark interest rates. Traders have been paring back their expectations for further Fed cuts in light of the latest inflation data, and see low odds of a rate reduction before September.
“Mortgage rates are unlikely to drop much any time soon, as debt market investors demand higher returns to account for weakening spending power, and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates,” Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner said in a statement. “The days of sub-4% mortgage rates are over, and if inflation continues to resist being stamped out, they may not be back for a long time.”
Read more: 2025 housing market: Is it a good time to buy a house?
Claire Boston is a senior reporter for Yahoo Finance covering housing, mortgages, and home insurance.
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