Gilead Ups 2025 Outlook, Eyes Lenacapavir Launch For HIV Prevention

Tuesday, Gilead Sciences Inc GILD reported fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted EPS of $1.90, beating the consensus of $1.70.

Sales increased 6% year over year to $7.57 billion, beating the consensus of $7.14 billion. This was primarily due to higher sales in the HIV segment, as well as in Oncology and Liver Disease. Sales were partially offset by lower sales of Veklury (remdesivir).

HIV sales increased 16% to $5.45 billion, driven by demand, higher realized price, and favorable inventory dynamics.

Biktarvy sales for the quarter increased from $3.12 billion to $3.8 billion.

Liver disease sales increased 4% to $719 million, driven by a strong Livdelzi launch and increased HBV/HDV demand, partially offset by lower HCV sales from fewer patient starts.

Dividend: Gilead Sciences increased its quarterly cash dividend by 2.6% to $0.79 per share.

Also Read: Gilead Unveils New Yearly HIV Injection To Offer Hope for Less Frequent Preventive Dosing

Guidance: Gilead expects 2025 adjusted EPS of $7.70-$8.10 versus the consensus of $7.58 and sales of $28.2 billion—$28.6 billion versus the consensus of $28.42 billion.

“From this foundation of commercial strength, we are planning for the potential launch of lenacapavir for HIV PrEP in Summer 2025, with its unique opportunity to extend the reach of HIV prevention,” said Daniel O’Day, Gilead’s Chairman and CEO.

Piper Sandler raised Gilead’s price forecast from $105 to $110, with an unchanged Overweight rating. The analysts cited the upcoming commercial launch of lenacapavir in PrEP later this year and several notable late-stage readouts on tap.

After filing for regulatory approval of lenacapavir for PrEP last year, Gilead still expects a potential commercial launch in 2025. This could help the company secure its place in the PrEP market and improve patient adherence. It will also strengthen its HIV leadership into the late 2030s.

Goldman Sachs writes that Gilead is well-positioned for the lenacapavir launch.

On the HIV business, Goldman Sachs analyst Salveen Richter says commentary was largely consistent with the recent investor event.

The analyst sees challenges in oncology due to competition affecting Kite and Trodelvy but remains positive on Arcellx Inc.’s ACLX partnered therapy, anito-cel, for multiple myeloma and is keeping an eye on Trodelvy’s expansion.

Needham analyst Joseph Stringer sees two key events driving value in 2025: the anticipated launch of lenacapavir for HIV prevention and Phase 3 trial updates for Trodelvy in first-line metastatic triple-negative breast cancer.

The analyst maintains a Hold rating on Gilead, citing a balanced risk/reward at current levels. However, Needham is growing more optimistic about the stock. The analysts credit the strong performance of Gilead’s HIV business, improving profit margins, and lenacapavir’s potential to boost revenue.

Price Action: Gilead Sciences stock is up 7.73% at $103.57 at last check Wednesday.

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Image via Gilead Sciences