Down 50% With a 5.9% Dividend Yield, Here's Why This Dirt Cheap Value Stock Is Worth Buying in February

Despite a wave of guidance cuts and a complete reset in medium-term expectations, healthcare has been a rare bright spot. The company is still expecting exponential growth in this category, even as the rest of the business struggles. CEO Carol Tomé said the following on the fourth-quarter earnings call:

Healthcare is such an opportunity for us. The healthcare market growth slowed down a bit in 2024. The market grew 2.5%. We grew 5%. So our healthcare revenue for the year, about $10.5 billion. We’ve got plans to take that to $20 billion by 2026.

Management has invested heavily in healthcare because it believes it is a growing market that can deliver high-margin results, allowing it to be less dependent on low-margin business-to-consumer deliveries.

UPS has the potential to turn its business around. But years of disappointment and weak 2025 guidance give investors little to smile about. Besides being a turnaround candidate, the allure of the stock is its massive 5.9% dividend yield.

It didn’t used to have an ultra-high yield. But some mammoth dividend raises in recent years and a languishing stock price have pushed the yield up.

Investors worried that the company will cut its payout can rest easy knowing management is committed to returning capital to investors. In its fourth-quarter earnings release, it said it expects to make $5.5 billion in 2025 dividend payments, $1 billion in stock buybacks, and $3.5 billion in capital expenditures (capex).

For context, UPS spent $5.9 billion on dividends and buybacks in 2024 and $3.91 billion on capex. Of that, it spent $5.4 billion on dividends and paid down $3.8 billion in debt.

So while it is pulling back a little on capex, it is restoring investor confidence in the dividend by implying a slight raise in 2025.

The company has long said it is targeting a payout ratio of 50%, meaning half of earnings are going toward the dividend. It continues to be well above that range, but mainly because of its pension expense. Tomé said the following on the earnings call:

From a dividend payout perspective, we’re targeting 50% of earnings, and we’re higher than that. It’s important to note, however, that it’s distorted because of the below-the-line noncash pension expense. And if you ignore the noncash pension expense, the payout ratio isn’t as high as it appears at its pace. So plenty of liquidity to pay the dividend.

In sum, management believes its dividend is affordable and it can continue to make minor raises even while it turns the business around.

UPS has made a series of strategic blunders in recent years. Those mistakes have translated to a lower stock price. Its weak guidance gives investors few reasons to hold the stock through this period other than the hope that it can emerge as a stronger company, along with the passive income potential from the dividend.

As appealing as the dividend is, the stock is only worth buying if you think the company is charting a path toward higher earnings growth through its efficiency improvements and focus on SMBs and healthcare. Because ultimately, a dividend is only as strong as the company paying it. And if UPS fails to grow earnings, it won’t be able to raise or even sustain its existing dividend expense.

Given all the uncertainty, investors are getting the chance to buy it at a dirt cheap valuation (a price-to-earnings ratio of just 16.4). Investors who believe the worst is over should consider buying the stock now. But if you want to give the turnaround more time to play out, it’s also reasonable to consider keeping UPS on a watch list.

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John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Daniel Foelber has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon. The Motley Fool recommends United Parcel Service. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Down 50% With a 5.9% Dividend Yield, Here’s Why This Dirt Cheap Value Stock Is Worth Buying in February was originally published by The Motley Fool