On Thursday, Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. NBIX reported fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.69, higher than the $1.54 reported a year ago, beating the consensus of $1.56.
The company reported sales of $627.7 million compared to $515.2 million a year ago, missing the consensus of $628.99 million.
Ingrezza fourth quarter and fiscal 2024 net product sales were $615 million and $2.3 billion, respectively.
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Ingrezza fourth-quarter net product sales grew 23% compared to fourth quarter 2023, driven by strong underlying patient demand and improvement in gross-to-net dynamics.
Crenessity fourth quarter and fiscal 2024 net product sales were $2 million, reflecting initial pharmacy orders following FDA approval in December 2024
Guidance: Neurocrine Biosciences expects 2025 Ingrezza Net Product Sales of $2.5 billion-$2.6 billion.
William Blair writes that Ingrezza’s 2025 revenue guidance is slightly conservative compared to their 2025 estimate of $2.60 billion and the Street estimate of $2.67 billion, which fell below investor expectations.
Analyst Myles Minter writes that near-term pressures are weighing on the Ingrezza trajectory. The analyst continues to view Ingrezza as the gold-standard pharmacotherapy for tardive dyskinesia (TD), given its once-daily dosing, no need for long dose titration intervals, and lack of a suicidality and depression FDA black-box warning.
With Ingrezza still holding 14 years of potential patent protection, William Blair sees a long growth trajectory for the product, but the model addresses near-term competitive pressures ahead of the second-half 2025 salesforce expansion.
William Blair reiterates the Outperform rating on Neurocrine.
Analyst Reaction:
- BofA Securities analyst Tazeen Ahmad maintains Neurocrine Biosciences with a Buy and lowers the price target from $184 to $179.
- Needham analyst Ami Fadia reiterates the Hold rating.
- HC Wainwright analyst Andrew Fein maintains Neurocrine Biosciences with a Buy and lowers the price target from $190 to $185.
Price Action: NBIX stock is down 191% at $121.98 at the last check on Friday.
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