Trump's Tax Plans Could Slash Revenue By $11 Trillion, Push Debt To 149% Of GDP: Report Says White House Relies On 'Fantasy Math'

Donald Trump‘s proposed tax plan paints an encouraging picture of lower taxes and stronger economic growth, but the numbers may tell a different story.

The promised tax cuts could slash federal revenue by up to $11.2 trillion over the next decade, sending U.S. debt soaring to 149% of gross domestic product if not offset by comparable spending reductions, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

The projections from the bipartisan organization, which surfaced in a Thursday report, challenge the idea that tax cuts alone can drive enough economic growth to neutralize their impact on the deficit.

While the White House’s optimistic projections assume additional economic growth of $3 trillion, independent estimates indicate that’s wishful thinking—by a factor of 14.

A $5 Trillion To $11 Trillion Revenue Hole

Trump’s tax priorities, as reported by the CFRB, focus on extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), expanding deductions for state and local taxes (SALT), and reducing taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits.

Depending on the specifics, these measures could lower federal revenue by $5 trillion, in a low estimate, to $11.2 trillion, in a high estimate, over 10 years.

The largest cost stems from extending TCJA’s expiring provisions, which could shrink revenue by $3.9 trillion to $4.8 trillion according to CFRB estimates.

Boosting the $10,000 SALT deduction cap may add another $200 billion to $1.2 trillion to the fiscal shortfall.

In contrast, closing the carried interest loophole and eliminating tax breaks for stadium owners may raise between $20 billion and $100 billion—a small offset compared to the overall cost.

Debt-to-GDP Ratio At Risk Of Skyrocketing

Without spending cuts to balance the tax reductions, the CFRB estimates that U.S. debt could jump from 100% of GDP in early 2025 to between 132% and 149% by 2035.

Even under current law, the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise to 118% by 2035, meaning Trump’s tax plans could accelerate the debt surge significantly.

“This proposal could boost interest costs by $1.2 trillion to $2.7 trillion over the next decade, driving annual net interest payments to record highs and risking a serious debt spiral,” the CFRB wrote.

No Growth Miracle In Sight

Trump’s plan suggests that tax cuts will spur enough economic growth to offset much of the revenue loss.

The White House has floated a $3 trillion boost in dynamic feedback—the increased tax revenue generated by economic growth.

Yet another CFRB analysis released Friday challenges this projection, noting it is nearly 14 times higher than the average revenue impact estimated by seven independent economic studies.

According to the CFRB, “$3 trillion of dynamic feedback is fantasy math,” as the effect on growth would be substantially lower.

“This $3 trillion feedback assumption is an order of magnitude larger than any semi-credible estimates,” the CFRB stated. 

Credible dynamic estimates from the Congressional Budget Office and other institutions project that extending the TCJA would generate between $60 billion of negative feedback (meaning a net loss in revenue) and $581 billion in positive revenue feedback.

The assumption of $3 trillion in dynamic feedback would require a sustained GDP growth rate of 3.2% annually—75% higher than the projected 1.8%.

“Additional policies besides tax cut extensions – including additional tax reforms, deregulation, energy development and distribution, spending reforms, and deficit reduction – could boost economic growth beyond the modest effects of TCJA extension,” the CFRB wrote.

Although, some parts “including tariffs and immigration restrictions, would actually slow economic growth and shrink overall output,” the organization added.

In other words, even in the best-case scenario, Trump’s economic plan is overestimating the impact of tax cuts by trillions.

For the White House’s projections to hold, annual real GDP growth would need to surge from a projected 1.8% to 3.2% for the next decade—a 75% jump that economists widely regard as implausible.

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