The emergence of a small Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) company called DeepSeek initially put a giant hole in the U.S. stock market. Tech stocks — particularly those connected to the AI trend — got crushed, and GPU king Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) lost roughly $600 billion of its market cap in a single day as investors grew concerned about the company’s moat, and whether AI software could be trained and powered at lower costs with less powerful chips.
Now the big question that analysts and investors are grappling with is how serious a threat DeepSeek actually is to the AI sector’s status quo. Some think that the company may have invested more money and used higher-quality chips to develop the DeepSeek R1 large language model than it’s letting on, while others think its claims are legitimate. Some also think DeepSeek’s innovations could prove a net positive for other AI companies long term. After the recent sell-off, would investors be better served to buy the dip on Nvidia or Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG)?
The big reason that Nvidia got hit so hard by DeepSeek is that the Chinese company allegedly managed to create a chatbot with capabilities rivaling ChatGPT, but at a fraction of the cost. DeepSeek says it trained its model for just $5.6 million and used older Nvidia chips to do it. Meanwhile, OpenAI has spent more than $100 million to train certain ChatGPT models.
Nvidia issued a statement on Jan. 27 that seemingly praised DeepSeek and said that the chips used to build its model were “fully export control compliant.” The chipmaker also said DeepSeek shows why its chips are needed and that they will be needed in the future. One group of analysts seemed to concur. Cantor analyst C.J. Muse called the sell-off a complete overreaction:
We think this view is farthest from the truth and that the announcement is actually very bullish with AGI (artificial general intelligence) seemingly closer to reality and Jevons Paradox (what happens when improved efficiency actually boosts demand, causing resources to be used up more quickly overall) almost certainly leading to the AI industry wanting more compute, not less.
Muse also noted that there are some doubts about what chips DeepSeek actually used, but he ultimately believes the innovation is bringing the world closer to an artificial general intelligence and will ultimately lead to more widespread use of AI. However, there is also a camp that is concerned DeepSeek is starting to shrink Nvidia’s incredible moat, which has supported its 75% operating profit margins.