Bull Markets Last For 7.9 Years On Average But Third-Year Returns Can Be Weak, Says This Research Firm

A bull market has lasted for 7.9 years on average over the last 50 years, according to data highlighted by Carson Research in their investment research’s outlook for 2025.

What Happened: Carson Research’s report analyzing bull markets over the past 50 years shows that the 1987 and 2002 bull markets spanned five years each, while the 1974 bull market extended for 6.2 years.

Notably, the 2009 bull market lasted for 11 years, the longest in recent times. Additionally, the 1988 bull market held a record at 12.3 years.

On average, these five bull markets over the last 50 years were 7.9 years long.

“Looking at the previous 11 bull markets, we found the average bull lasted more than five years, suggesting even though this bull market is mighty, it could have plenty of room left to run,” the note stated.

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Why It Matters: However, despite highlighting these statistics, the note added, “Bullishness is more pervasive now and we could see more volatility in 2025.”

According to Carson Research, two red flags for the stock market arise historically, the first is that 2025 is the third year of a bull market, and the second is that the valuations are stretched.

An analysis of the eight bull markets since 1950 that reached their third year revealed an average gain of only 2.1%.

On a concluding note the ‘Animal Spirits’ report added, “While we remain overweight equities, we are looking to potentially add excess returns by investing in factors like low volatility and momentum within equities, and actively managed strategies on the fixed income side.”

Price Action: The exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500 index, SPY, advanced 25.27% over a year, whereas, QQQ, tracking the Nasdaq 100 rose 26% in the same period.

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