Market Digest: THRM, DINO, KLAC, OKE, RJF, SYK, META, ABBV, NCLH

Summary

Monday Tee Up: The Election and Interest Rates This week features the election and a Federal Reserve interest-rate decision. Suffice it to say, the markets may be volatile. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lower by 0.2%, the S&P 500 lost 1.4%, and the Nasdaq shed 1.5%. For the year, the Dow is higher by 12%, the S&P is up 20%, and the Nasdaq has gained 22%. The earnings calendar is packed again. On Monday, Palantir Technologies, Marriott International, and American International Group all report. On Tuesday, Apollo Global Management, Yum! Brands, DuPont, Cummins, and Archer-Daniels Midland. On Wednesday, Qualcomm, McKesson, Novo Nordisk, Toyota Motor, and Take-Two Interactive. On Thursday, Motorola, Arista Networks, Airbnb, Becton, Dickinson, and Duke Energy. And on Friday, Paramount Global. So far, 349 (or 70%) of the S&P 500 companies have reported. Earnings are coming in 8.4% higher than in the prior-year quarter. Communication Services, up 24%, and Technology, up 19%, are leading, while Energy, down 27%, is underperforming. For full year, Argus forecasts earnings growth of 7%-9%. On the economic calendar, the big day is Thursday, when the Federal Reserve comes out with its next decision on interest rates. Odds that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points (bps) are essentially at 100%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Wall Street will focus on Chairman Powell’s statement at the press conference immediately following the rate announcement. Meanwhile, Factory Orders will be updated on Monday; the U.S. Trade Deficit and ISM Services on Tuesday; and Consumer Sentiment on Friday. Argus Chief Economist Chris Graja’s Call of the Week is the Institute for Supply Management’s Services Index for October. Chris has offered the following commentary. ‘This is an early and important indicator of 4Q economic activity. Consumer spending on services represents more than 45% of GDP. The huge category includes housing expenses, including rent, healthcare, transportation services, and food services and hotels. The Services Index printed at a healthy and expansionary 54.9 in September. We expect a small uptick to 55 in October, just above the consensus of 53, which suggests the economy is healthy and will keep growing.’ The services category grew 2.6% in 3Q and contributed 1.21 points of the 2.8% increase in 3Q GDP according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Last week, the October jobs report delivered a mixed bag of information. Nonfarm Payrolls posted at 12,000 for October compared to a strong (but revised lower) 223,000 for S